Free trading tool

Trading Expectancy Calculator

See the historical expected value per trade based on your win rate, average win and average loss.

Add trades per month and estimated fees to see a broader historical estimate.

Free. No signup required.

Results update automatically as valid inputs are entered.

Formula

Trading Expectancy Formula

Expectancy = (Win Rate x Average Win) - (Loss Rate x Average Loss)

Static example: a 55% win rate with a $250 average win and $150 average loss creates (0.55 x 250) - (0.45 x 150), or +$70 per trade before fees.

Break-even

Break-even Win Rate

Average Loss / (Average Win + Average Loss)

With a $250 average win and $150 average loss, break-even win rate is 150 / 400 = 37.5%. This is the approximate win rate required for zero expectancy before fees, commissions and slippage.

Sample size

How Many Trades Do You Need?

A strategy can have positive expectancy and still experience losing streaks. A small number of trades may produce misleading results, especially in fast futures markets.

  • Review expectancy by setup, session, direction and instrument.
  • Compare NQ, MNQ, ES and MES separately when your data supports it.
  • Check time of day, day of week, account and behavioral conditions.
Win rate

Expectancy vs Win Rate

High win rate does not automatically mean positive trading expectancy. Hypothetical example: 80% winners, $50 average win and $300 average loss equals 40 - 60, or -$20 per trade.

  • Small winners can be overwhelmed by occasional large losses.
  • Average loss size matters as much as win probability.
  • Fees, commissions and slippage can move a result below break-even.
Reward-to-risk

Expectancy vs Reward-to-Risk

A low win-rate strategy can still have positive expectancy when average winners are sufficiently larger than average losers. Hypothetical example: 40% winners, $400 average win and $150 average loss equals +$70 per trade.

  • Reward-to-risk ratio helps explain the shape of expectancy.
  • Expectancy still depends on both win rate and loss rate.
  • Segmenting actual trades shows whether the pattern is consistent.
TradePilot bridge

Want TradePilot to Find What Changes Your Expectancy?

Expectancy tells you what your trading looks like overall. Import your completed Topstep or Tradovate trades and let TradePilot analyze historical patterns across losses, sessions, instruments and trading behavior.

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CSV import. No broker connection required.

FAQ

Trading Expectancy Questions

What is trading expectancy?

Trading expectancy is the average expected value per trade based on win rate, average win and average loss.

Does this calculator predict future profit?

No. Expectancy describes a statistical average based on the inputs provided and does not guarantee future profitability.